Public Opinion on the Rise of Spectacular, Sustainability-Oriented Large-Scale Projects in Astana and Baku

Abstract

This research draws from data collected through eight focus group discussions conducted in Astana, Kazakhstan, and Baku, Azerbaijan. It examines citizens' perceptions of megaprojects—both those that have been constructed and those that remain unbuilt—focusing on those aimed at sustainability within authoritarian contexts. The study addresses three interconnected questions: first, how do residents understand the roles of domestic and international governmental and non-governmental actors in urban development, particularly regarding unbuilt proposals? Second, how do residents perceive the connections between megaprojects, national image, and their countries' global reputations? Finally, how do citizens view the social and political implications of unbuilt megaprojects in their cities? This topic is significant because megaprojects have historically supported nation-building, urban renewal, and real estate speculation. In the context of heightened global movement of capital, policies, and ideas, states embrace ambitious projects to symbolize prosperity and modernization, which often results in increasingly extravagant and technologically advanced designs. While some projects come to fruition, others are merely speculative and are referred to as "megaproject mirages"—projects that are too extravagant and costly to undertake yet still hold value as symbolic capital. These mirages significantly influence political economies and urban identities. Current scholarship focuses on the high-risk nature of megaprojects but often overlooks the potential benefits of unbuilt initiatives. Such projects avoid prohibitive construction costs while still providing tangible financial and symbolic advantages. They enhance perceptions of host states as prosperous and functional, regardless of actual feasibility. Importantly, these proposals, even if unrealized, shape urban economies, cultural narratives, political dialogues, and public opinions. Research on megaprojects has expanded significantly over the past decade, analyzing their various impacts. However, there is still insufficient attention given to the social, political, and economic roles of unbuilt projects. Additionally, much of the existing scholarship, largely stemming from Global North and South contexts, risks oversimplifying impacts and creating universal narratives. Furthermore, limited research addresses citizen perspectives on megaprojects, particularly regarding unrealized flagship developments. Astana and Baku exemplify cases of large-scale speculative development in the Global East. Here, eco-branding strategically reconciles historical fossil-fuel economies with modern sustainability ideals, utilizing oil and gas wealth to reshape national images as environmentally conscious while promoting urban boosterism that benefits local elites. In these authoritarian settings, the promotion of eco-sustainable, energy-efficient lifestyles often substitutes for genuine democratic freedoms and transparency. Notable unbuilt or incomplete projects include Baku's net-zero Zira Island, the artificial eco-archipelago Khazar Islands, Astana's Light Rail Transit (LRT) system, Tulip City, and the expansive Water Green Boulevard Dome—each featuring'ecological' branding. Despite their unfinished status, these projects have influenced local urban politics, public discourse, and international perceptions of their respective countries. While urban development projects undeniably serve the interests of authoritarian elites, the outcomes are not solely determined by them; citizens still possess avenues for influence. The complex interactions among elites, societal actors, institutional structures, popular protests, and political-economic relationships significantly shape the outcomes of urban development. Therefore, a nuanced analysis is necessary to challenge overly simplistic dichotomies—such as state versus citizen or government versus ruling party—and to examine the potential role of civil society in the processes of democratization in urban development. Consequently, investigating citizen perceptions in megaproject research offers valuable insights into the political implications of megaproject mirages.