The Wider Black Sea Region and EU Security Threats After the War in Ukraine

Abstract

Before the war in Ukraine, European countries viewed the Black Sea region as a crossroads connecting Europe and Asia. The EU recognized the importance of the Black Sea area for connectivity, energy security, and regional development. It serves as a maritime link between Europe and the Caucasus and is a crucial component of the Middle Corridor—a multimodal trade route linking China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus. However, there was no clearly established strategy or vision regarding the “Post-Soviet Black Sea” region, particularly concerning security. The Black Sea region includes two EU and NATO member states (Bulgaria and Romania), one NATO member state (Turkey), and six post-Soviet states: Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine. Georgia and Ukraine have consistently expressed their desire to join the EU and are seen as the most pro-Western countries in the post-Soviet area. Despite the EU's enlargement to the west of the Black Sea, the European Union did not consider its political engagement with Georgia and Ukraine through the lens of security challenges. This was primarily because security issues were primarily addressed by NATO, in which most EU states are aligned. Additionally, before the war in Ukraine, the EU did not perceive Russia as a security threat. Following the war in Ukraine and especially during the second term of President Donald Trump in the United States, European states dramatically altered their views on European security, which also resulted in a shift in perception of the so-called “Post-Soviet Black Sea region” as part of European security. This paper examines the EU's relations with the post-Soviet Black Sea states before 2022 and discusses the EU’s European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and its eastern dimension, the Eastern Partnership (EaP) projects, within institutional frameworks. It will analyze how the EU's attitude toward this region changed after the war in Ukraine and how the internal and external circumstances of the ongoing conflict have reconceptualized European security threats stemming from Russia. The aim of this paper is to analyze how perceptions of European security have evolved since the war in Ukraine and to what extent the Black Sea region has become an integral part of European security following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The research questions include: - How has Russia’s war in Ukraine affected the EU’s security concerns? - What role does the Wider Black Sea region play in the rethinking of the EU's security strategy? This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse on security cooperation in the Black Sea region by providing a realistic and independent assessment of key challenges. It offers insights into the strategic outlook of key participants, illuminating the complexities of security and political developments in the region.