EU Enlargement and Frozen Conflicts in Georgia: Implications for Integration and Regional Stability

Abstract

The European Union’s renewed enlargement agenda following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has brought the Eastern Neighbourhood back to the centre of European geopolitics. The granting of candidate status to Georgia, alongside the advancement of Ukraine and Moldova in the accession process, reflects the EU’s growing recognition of enlargement as a strategic tool for promoting stability, democracy, and security. Nevertheless, unresolved territorial disputes continue to pose significant challenges to the accession prospects of countries seeking closer integration with the Union. This paper explores the impact of frozen conflicts on Georgia’s European integration process and assesses their implications for regional stability. Since the early 1990s, the unresolved conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have undermined Georgia’s territorial integrity, limited state authority, and shaped both domestic political dynamics and foreign policy priorities. The situation was further consolidated after the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, when Russia recognized both territories and expanded its military presence in the region. These developments have created structural obstacles to Georgia’s fulfilment of key EU accession requirements, particularly those related to institutional stability, effective governance, and security. Using the framework of Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union and the Copenhagen criteria, this study analyses the extent to which frozen conflicts affect Georgia’s ability to advance towards membership. It argues that, despite significant reform efforts and a strong pro-European orientation, unresolved territorial disputes remain a decisive constraint on accession prospects. More broadly, the Georgian case demonstrates how frozen conflicts have evolved from questions of territorial integrity into geopolitical factors that influence enlargement policy, regional security, and the future balance of power in Europe. The paper concludes that the management of such conflicts will be crucial for both Georgia’s European trajectory and the EU’s long-term enlargement strategy.