USA between Past and Present: 2024 presidential elections

Abstract

Based on the interpretative method, the article provides answers to two questions: Why did Trump win when he didn't meet the standards and norms necessary to win the presidential elections? Why did Harris lose the elections when the Biden administration's economic achievements were higher than Trump's during his first presidency? Trump's political figure emerged at the intersection of the US's past and future when the question arose of how the country would move into the future. In the history of the United States, one historical cycle has ended and the country has entered a transitional period of its development when everyone feels the need for renewal. The people can no longer live the old way, but the elites don’t know how to govern the country. In this situation, anti-establishment sentiments emerge, which shaped the demand for profound changes. Trump understood this and offered the electorate his plan for rapid and profound changes. One of the reasons for the success of this plan is that Trump’s electorate, which demanded profound changes, did not know how to conduct them. He promised them rapid and profound changes, which proved particularly attractive to republican voters who were characterized by a relatively low level of education. Trump's victory was greatly influenced by Republican voters' negative attitudes toward unelected institutions (bureaucracy, courts, media) that wield great influence in the political system. It was these institutions, with which he had always had a strained relationship, that Trump called the “deep state”. But this does not mean that his electorate supports the dictatorship. On the contrary, they have a negative attitude towards unelected institutions precisely because they consider them to be anti-democratic forces. Therefore, Trump's victory can be seen as an expression of dissatisfaction with the functioning of democracy and the desire to return power to the people. This is why Trump's negative attitude towards bureaucracy, the courts and the media has neutralized the negative aspects of his biography. Therefore, it can be concluded that the conditions for Trump's victory were created by the contradiction of the modern state, when real power and influence are alienated from the voter and concentrated in the hands of the bureaucracy, experts, courts and the media. The authors share the opinion of American researchers Foy and Mack that voters perceive the growing influence of unelected institutions and experts as undemocratic restrictions on popular sovereignty. Trump capitalized on the anti-establishment sentiments of the electorate and presented a program that focused on specific goals and clearly defined ways to achieve them. It is impossible to determine the reasons for Trump's victory by just one variable. It is the result of a causal chain, which consists of a number of variables that can be divided into three groups: 1. socio-economic; 2. cultural and ideological; 3. technical. Socio-economic group combines variables such as: inflation, unemployment, wages, economic growth, social equality, the gap between rich and poor, material standard of living. Cultural and ideological: value orientations, attitudes towards inequality, social injustice, democracy, constitution, political system. Technical: ratings, features of the election campaigns, election programs, behavior of election subjects, etc. Biden's unpopularity and his replacement by Harris, who didn't have enough time to fully develop her election campaign, played a significant role in Trump's victory. But the most important thing was that, unlike Trump, she was unable to convince the electorate that the US had achieved better economic results during Biden's presidency than Trump had during his first presidency. But despite the decline in inflation, it still remained a major issue for voters, which is the direct cause of Harris's defeat. Unlike Trump, she was unable to focus her program on the most important issues. It was more diffuse and less concentrated.