The Electoral Threshold and Democratic Representation: The Case of Georgia’s 2024 Parliamentary Elections

Abstract

On October 26, 2024, Georgia held its regular parliamentary elections, which, for the first time since gaining independence, were conducted entirely under a proportional electoral system (ISFED, 2024). This reform aimed to strengthen political pluralism and encourage a culture of consensus within parliamentary processes (Sukhitashvili, 2024). According to the Constitution of Georgia, Parliament comprises 150 members elected through a proportional system in a single nationwide constituency. Mandates are distributed only among those political parties that receive at least 5% of the valid votes. If the total number of distributed mandates does not reach 150, the remaining seats are allocated sequentially to the political subjects with the best results (Parliament of Georgia). The choice of an electoral system is a sovereign right of the state. Each country has the autonomy to determine which electoral system and threshold best align with its historical and political context. Striking a balance between representation and governability is especially important during transitional periods and in conflict-prone environments (Tsintsadze, 2020). The electoral threshold serves as a mechanism that sets the minimum share of votes a political party or coalition must receive to gain representation in the legislature. This mechanism is widespread in proportional electoral systems, as it promotes multi-partyism, facilitates the formation of stable majorities, and protects legislative bodies from excessive fragmentation, which could otherwise hinder or paralyse parliamentary activities. However, it is worth noting that, according to the Venice Commission, no electoral system can achieve full proportionality in practice (Micaela Del Monte, 2024). Critics argue that electoral thresholds harm pluralism and artificially distort parliamentary representation. Moreover, to overcome the threshold, smaller political actors are often compelled to form artificial coalitions, which can ultimately leave voters of minor parties without effective political representation (Micaela Del Monte, 2024). The electoral threshold has a significant impact on the realisation of voters' political will, the quality of elections, and the level of representation. In Georgia, this issue holds a central place in the country's political discourse. Ahead of the 2024 parliamentary elections, the debate over lowering the electoral threshold resurfaced. Some opposition parties argued that, for the sake of Georgia's pro-Western future, and better to reflect the real sentiments of society in the legislature and secure a multi-party parliament, it was crucial to lower the ruling party "Georgian Dream - Democratic Georgia's" electoral threshold from 5% to 2% ("Demand for Lowering the Electoral Threshold," 2024), which would also help reduce the country's political polarisation. Conversely, some opponents maintained that parties seeking parliamentary representation should at least be able to surpass a 3% threshold. In addition, lowering the threshold posed certain risks, such as enabling the participation of potentially destructive forces with dubious funding sources (Kandelaki, 2022). The ruling party argued that, given Georgia's political context, maintaining a 5% threshold was both rational and legitimate, ensuring a stable parliamentary majority. They also noted that a similar model operates in most EU countries (NEWSHUB, 2022). The retention of the 5% threshold ahead of Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections had a significant influence on the process of party consolidation. Political actors became increasingly focused on achieving electoral success and surpassing the threshold of winning. Consequently, coalitions were formed between political forces with differing ideological and value-based orientations. These circumstances affected the nature of the electoral campaign and limited voters' ability to make conscious and genuinely free choices. Furthermore, when there is a high probability that a political party will fail to overcome the threshold, some voters refrain from supporting their preferred party and instead vote for a subject more likely to surpass the threshold, thus distorting the true reflection of the electorate's political will and undermining pluralism. Moreover, when the votes cast for threshold-failing parties are effectively nullified, and as a result, parties that surpass the threshold receive a greater share of parliamentary mandates, it raises serious concerns about the fair reflection of voters' political will. It should also be noted that, within Georgia's political context, the prospects for new, idea-driven political forces to enter the legislature remain low. Thus, this study seeks to address the following research questions: What impact did the 5% electoral threshold have on parliamentary representation in Georgia's fully proportional 2024 parliamentary elections? How did the loss of votes cast for threshold-failing parties affect political pluralism and the realisation of voters' political will in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? How does the 5% threshold limit the prospects for new political forces to achieve success in fully proportional parliamentary elections in Georgia? This research aims to explore the impact of Georgia's 5% electoral threshold on political representation and the realisation of voters' political will, using the 2024 parliamentary elections as a case study. Furthermore, the research focuses on analysing the challenges associated with the loss of votes and the obstacles that impede the success of new political forces in the political arena. The study will be based on an analysis of documents related to electoral matters. Specifically, it will examine the political and legal aspects of the electoral threshold, relevant legislative acts, and the coalition-building strategies of political parties. Reports published by international and local organisations regarding the elections will also be analysed. Additionally, the study will utilise descriptive statistics to examine the effect of the electoral threshold on the distribution of votes and mandates among parties.