Demographic Processes in Georgia in the face of Global Challenges

Abstract

The end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century witnessed a wealth of global challenges, which emerged primarily due to the lightning collapse of the Soviet Union (and, consequently, of the entire community of socialist countries), which was accompanied by severe economic and socio-political crises following the disruption of economicties between these countries. As is well known, global challenges have arisen with varying degrees of intensity throughout human history. In ancient times, global challenges most often manifested themselves in the form of various infectious epidemics (not to mention such related problems as practically permanent wars and famines that claimed thousands of lives). It should not be forgotten that global challenges often manifest themselves in the form of natural disasters (droughts, floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, etc.). In short, global challenges ultimately manifest themselves in crises of various kinds (economic, political, military, natural disasters, etc.). As of January 1, 2023, Georgia ranked 119th in terms of territory (69,700 square kilometres) among 241 countries worldwide, and 131st in terms of population, meaning that Georgia had only 0.046% of the world's population on that date. The population of Georgia has been declining almost continuously since the 1990s, which can be particularly detrimental for the already small state. Moreover, maintaining the current demographic situation in Georgia for another 1-2 generations (50-60 years) may even lead to a demographic catastrophe, especially since Georgia still has unresolved border problems with all four countries bordering it (Azerbaijan, Turkey, the Russian Federation and Armenia). This situation may, for example, have a substantial migratory impact on our country and even stimulate territorial claims from neighbouring countries. Thus, the continuation of the current trend of population decline will further exacerbate the problem of national security, and the persistence of this depopulation in Georgia may even lead to a deterioration of its geopolitical position. Global challenges have a significant impact on demography (fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, migration). In periods of economic crises, the production of goods can be realised later, when the crisis is over and the level of production increases. Still, they can in no way compensate for those unborn children and their descendants who could not be born due to the crisis. This is the reason for the deterioration of the demographic situation in the post-crisis period. Thus, the main forms of manifestation of global challenges are: “demographic catastrophes” and „demographic crises“. As is known, if a demographic catastrophe is primarily determined by a sharp and sometimes unexpected increase in mortality, the same cannot be said about a demographic crisis, which is usually caused by a decline in fertility. During the crisis, the mortality rate will either remain stable or increase only slightly. Quantitatively, a demographic catastrophe is characterised by pronounced depopulation processes resulting from a sharp increase in mortality. In contrast, during a demographic crisis, there is a significant decrease in natural increase due to a decline in fertility, which can reach negative values. Considering all the above, it is interesting to examine the global issues that affect demographic processes in Georgia. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years (2020-2023) had a global character and claimed the lives of thousands of our compatriots, which, from the demographic point of view, meant a sharp increase in mortality. Over the last 35 years, Georgia has experienced almost chronic depopulation, one of the manifestations of which is a significant population loss recorded from 1994 to 2024, amounting to -1,235.3 thousand people. This is an important and largely irretrievable loss for the already small population of Georgia. One of the global demographic challenges for the modern world, including Georgia, is international migration, which has intensified in almost all countries. Georgia is no exception in this regard. In addition, Georgia is characterised by a negative external migration balance unprecedented for the post-Soviet period, the persistence of which will make it even more challenging to maintain the country's demographic security for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a long-term demographic policy in advance of Georgia's demographic development.