Trends in Demological Development in Modern Georgia

Abstract

The present paper is an attempt to identify the main trends in the demological development of modern Georgia. It gives the analysis of the reasons for the regular population decline in Georgia in recent decades. The main cause of depopulation in the country is considered to be decreased natality, as well as significantly increased labor emigration. The influence of the aforementioned processes on the age structure of the population is illustrated in the present article. The worsened age structure has resulted in a further decline in the birth rate and deterioration of marital status. These trends have significantly increased the rate of demological aging of the population, which will further increase mortality and decrease life expectancy. All these factors combine to deteriorate the overall demological status what is confirmed by the analysis of the sex structure and marital status indices of the population. Another factor affecting the overall number of the population is the unusually increased labor emigration, mainly of the people of young and reproductive age. The article gives specific views on the development of long-term action programs first to stabilize and then to increase the population of Georgia, in particular to stimulate the birth rate and regulate labor migration processes. The depopulation process in Georgia occurs against the background of a catastrophic growth of the global population showing average 100 million annual increase making almost 1.6% growth rate. Another serious issue is that the population growth rate varies greatly across different continents and countries: 97% of the growth is fixed in developing countries, while developed economies, so called the West, show only 3% growth. This fact is undoubtedly becoming one of the most important determinants of migration movements and intensive migration processes in the world. The problems of a sharp decline in the birth rate are especially noticeable for the generations born after 1989. The fall in the birth rate in Georgia, coupled with sharply increased labor emigration, has reduced population density. In the early 1990s, population density per square kilometer was 65.2 against 82 in 2021. From the early 1990s to 2021, the sharp decline in natality deteriorated the age structure of the population. The mean, median and modal ages of the population have also increased. Their increase is a clear indicator of a great increase in population aging, which is also caused by so-called “aging from below”, i.e. by a sharp decline in natality, rather than “aging from above”, i.e. by an increase in life expectancy. The population of Georgia, like the population of other countries in the world (Western Europe, the United States of America, Japan, etc.), is currently demologically aging. According to the scale of demographic ageing accepted by the UN, if the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population is 7% or more, the population is considered to be demologically aging. In Georgia this rate is already close to 15% (the world average is 8%). The reason for such aging of the population, along with sharply declined birth rate, is unusually intense labor emigration mainly of people of young, reproductive and working age. Consequently, it must be assumed that the process of demological aging will accelerate further in the coming years. This state will generate even greater social, economic and political challenges for the country. In order to overcome them, the government of Georgia needs to pursue a scientifically sound and active socio-demographic policy. The sharp deterioration of demological load coefficients, which are generalized values of age structure, should be the subject of serious attention. They show the burden of society by non-productive population. Compared to the decline of the absolute number of births in the analyzed period, the average annual population of Georgia has decreased more. Changes in the secondary sex ratio are one of the important characteristic indices of natality. Their dynamics suggest that this indicator has changed very little and in the future, its influence on the birth rate  regime and sex-age structure of the population will naturally be little what is also very important. It is noteworthy that over the past 30 years, in Georgia the number of children born to women under 20 years decreased significantly and the number of children born to women over 30 years increased, i.e. the number of late births increased what will undoubtedly cause a further decline in the birth rate. The dynamics of the number and order of births are very important for the comprehensive characterization of the birth rate. Unfortunately, our studies show that even these important indices have deteriorated in Georgia. The above-described demological processes taking place in the country place serious challenges before the Government of Georgia. There is urgent need for a scientifically based socio-demological policy, by applying the scientific potential and involving the general public of the country.