The Role of the United States in the China-Japan Dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Dao Islands

Abstract

The aim of the present article is to analyze the transformation of Russia’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus, specifically regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The study examines the key factors that influenced Russia’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus and contributed to its fundamental changes in relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Additionally, the research aims to identify the circumstances and factors that led to Russia’s decision to allow Azerbaijan to regain control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region through military means. The period of Azerbaijan's return of Nagorno-Karabakh by military effort is not chosen by chance and coincides with a rather difficult geopolitical situation for Russia, as Ukraine's growing desire to join NATO and the European Union is the main challenge to Russia's national security concept. Therefore, Russia's main focus is directed against the expansion of NATO to its borders, which requires the mobilization and concentration of considerable military and political resources. Based on the above the study also seeks to determine whether this foreign policy behavior constituted a forced reaction or a strategic concession. Data collection and analysis in this study employed social research qualitative approach to comprehensively assess the political and military consequences of Russia’s efforts to consolidate or weaken influence in the region. For the theoretical and conceptual analysis of Russia’s foreign policy transformation, the study applies neoclassical realism, which allows evaluation of Russia’s policy changes at three levels: systemic, domestic, and individual. Neoclassical realism provides a framework for understanding state foreign policy decisions based on both structural constraints and domestic factors, including the cognitive perceptions of the ruling elite. This approach creates a multi-level analytical framework that integrates systemic, intermediate, and individual-level variables, enabling a comprehensive analysis of Russia’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus, particularly in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In addition, the study incorporates the Rational Actor Model, complementing the conceptual framework by systematically assessing Russia’s motivations for foreign policy choices, the prioritization of strategic interests, and the behavioral logic of decision-makers. The rational actor model is one of the most widely used models of foreign policy analysis, which tries to explain how and why states make specific foreign policy decisions. The mentioned model perceives the state as a single, rational actor that acts to protect its own national interests and evaluates all alternatives as much as possible in the decision-making process and chooses the most profitable one. The findings indicate that Russia’s foreign policy transformation regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was shaped by a combination of regional influence constraints, temporary strategic concessions to allow Azerbaijan military and political gains, and the prioritization of more urgent objectives (e.g., the conflict in Ukraine). In the face of limited resources, temporary concessions are a rational solution in order to mobilize more resources to achieve more important goals. These dynamics were further influenced by the cognitive perceptions and ideological orientations of Russian decision-makers regarding to the political course of Armenia.