The Security Paradox in Georgia: Hybrid Warfare, Periphery of Conventional Conflict, and the Rise of Illiberal Peace

Abstract

Since the restoration of independence, and especially after the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, Georgia’s security environment has undergone a profound transformation, positioning the country as an epicenter of Russian hybrid warfare. Under conditions of sustained hybrid pressure, formal stability has largely been preserved; however, peace has been qualitatively transformed into what can be described as hybrid peace. This form of peace is characterized by the coexistence of institutional stability with informal coercion, external influence, and the gradual erosion of democratic mechanisms. As a result, the boundary between war and peace has become increasingly blurred, producing a complex and ambiguous security landscape. At the same time, ongoing conventional conflicts in the broader region (most notably the Russia–Ukraine war) as well as related political and economic processes, including practices of sanctions circumvention, have reshaped Georgia’s geopolitical role. The country has emerged as a peripheral yet functionally significant space in the context of conventional warfare. This dual positioning has generated a distinct security paradox: Georgia simultaneously operates as an epicenter of hybrid warfare, a periphery of conventional conflict, and a site of hybrid peace. Such a configuration reflects not only shifting regional dynamics but also the broader transformation of the international order. Within this evolving context, the contours of an illiberal peace have become increasingly visible in Georgia. The persistence of hybrid threats and external pressures has created a permissive environment for the consolidation of power by domestic political actors, often at the expense of liberal democratic standards. Simultaneously, the growing ambitions of regional actors, particularly Russia and Iran, combined with the perceived inconsistencies and limitations of European Union and NATO policies, have contributed to a reconfiguration of incentives and constraints shaping Georgia’s political trajectory. These developments raise important questions about whether the current dynamics represent a temporary adaptation to external pressures or the longer-term consolidation of an illiberal model of peace. This paper seeks to examine the extent to which Georgia’s geopolitical transformation (from an epicenter of hybrid warfare to a periphery of conventional conflicts) contributes to the consolidation of illiberal peace. The paper analyzes the interaction between internal and external factors in shaping Georgia’s evolving security and governance model. By situating Georgia within the broader context of regional conflicts and global systemic change, the research aims to provide a nuanced understanding of how small states navigate complex and overlapping security environments. The consolidation of illiberal peace may be understood as both a response to and a condition for sustaining the country’s role within a shifting geopolitical landscape marked by uncertainty, competition, and the redefinition of international norms. In this context, illiberal peace is not merely an unintended byproduct of external pressures but increasingly functions as a strategic adaptation to a complex security environment. It enables political stability and regime resilience while simultaneously constraining democratic development and institutional accountability. Therefore, Georgia’s evolving model of governance reflects a broader tension between security imperatives and liberal democratic commitments. Ultimately, the study suggests that unless external incentives and internal dynamics shift significantly, the trajectory toward the consolidation of illiberal peace is likely to persist and further deepen.