Polarity of the International System in Times of Change: A Proposed Model of Analysis

Abstract

Polarity is a key element in analyzing the structure of the international system (M. Kaplan, 1957). It links the concept of polyarchy with the global distribution of power as seen in previous approaches. The structure of this distribution of power serves as an independent variable, acting as a type of force field that influences state behavior. Different types of polarity result in distinct patterns of state interactions. Russia's aggression towards Ukraine has accelerated changes in the global international system, definitively marking the end of the unipolar hegemony of the United States that emerged after the Cold War. This situation represents not a short-term crisis, but a permanent shift within the international system that signals the conclusion of the "inter-epoch" following the Cold War. The world has entered a new period of power redistribution, which will have significant consequences for the structure of polarity and the behavior of states. The cognitive goals of this paper are threefold. First, it aims to reconstruct the evolution of thought regarding the polarity of the international system within the discipline of international relations, addressing the crucial question of its adequacy in light of accelerating changes in international realities. Second, it seeks to propose a new, dynamic approach to polarity—not simply viewing it in terms of relative excess power, which is characteristic of "billiard ball" models (a static, structural approach), but rather within the context of geopolitical strategy and the projection of states' potential (a dynamic approach). Third, it will analyze the geopolitical priorities of Russia, China, the United States, and the Global South. The polarity of the international system refers to the structure of power distribution in a polyarchic, decentralized international context at any given moment in history. It is a crucial element in analyzing the process of change within the international system. (Neorealism: K. Waltz, 1979; M. Kaplan, 1957). Models of international system polarity include unipolar, bipolar, multipolar, and dopolar (R. Haass, 2008). The unipolar system was not anticipated; it was only analyzed after it emerged as a result of historical developments. We are currently witnessing a change in polarity, transitioning from a unipolar system to an unpredictable future. Several relationships exist between polarity and the stability of the international system: 1) A bipolar system is considered more stable (K. Waltz, 1964; J. Mearsheimer); 2) A unipolar system is regarded as more stable (J. Ikenberry, W. Wohlforth, 1999); 3) A multipolar system is deemed more stable (K. Deutsch, D. Singer, 1964); and 4) A bi-multipolar system is viewed as optimal (R. Rosecrance, 1966). Existing models of international system polarization tend to be static, focusing on the relative surplus of power, and single-level, emphasizing the concentration of power within the global system. The proposed model is, first, dynamic and functionally oriented rather than solely structural. While it acknowledges the significance of surplus power, it also considers the geopolitical strategy (geopolitical rationality) of states, beyond just their power alone. Additionally, it addresses the evolving nature of power in international relations, incorporating elements of hard and soft power, the impact of interdependence on power usage, and the diffusion of power throughout the international system, including toward the Global South. Two decades ago, shifts in power centers were identified as moving from the West to the East; currently, we are also observing a shift from the North to the South. Second, it is proposed to view the polarity of the international system as a two-level phenomenon, accounting for both the global international system and regional powers.