Assessing the Compatibility of Associated Trio Member Countries (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine) with the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

After being granted the status of EU accession candidates, the member states of the 'associated trio' (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova) must align their foreign policy with that of the European Union (EU) as a necessary prerequisite for membership. The EU's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) aims to consolidate democracy, uphold the rule of law, protect human rights, bolster international security, and prevent conflicts (EUMM, 2024). Compliance with decisions and declarations of the European Council is essential for potential EU members to achieve these goals. Georgia's compatibility with EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) declarations has declined compared to previous years, with a rate of 31% in 2023 compared to 44% in 2022. Despite committing to cooperate with the EU under the Association Agreement, Georgia's alignment with CFSP decisions has decreased. In contrast, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, the other two members of the associated trio, have shown higher levels of compatibility. Ukraine demonstrates 91% compatibility, while Moldova's rate stands at 60% (European Commission, 2023). The urgency of the issue is underscored by the statement of Pavel Herchinski, the European Union Ambassador to Georgia, who noted the low level of Georgia's alignment with the EU's foreign policy. The EU requires 100% alignment with its foreign policy from all candidate countries (Publika.ge, 2024). The ambassador's statement is supported by data indicating that Georgia has only signed three of the 26 declarations and resolutions adopted against Russia following the Ukraine-Russia war, most of which were related to sanctions (European Commission, 2023). Aim of this study is to assess the compatibility of the three associated countries – Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova – with the foreign and security policy of the European Union. The research tasks are outlined as follows: Critically review and analyze existing academic theories, studies, and articles on the compatibility of countries in the realm of EU foreign and security policy, as well as common security and defense. Conduct a quantitative study on the support for and adherence to declarations, decisions, and resolutions adopted by the member countries of the associated trio in the field of the European Union's foreign and security policy. Undertake a content-based examination of the compatibility of the member states of the associated trio in the area of the European Union's foreign and security policy. The research question is formulated as follows: Why and how does the compatibility of Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova with the European Union's foreign and security policy change after the Russian-Ukrainian war? Which factors determine the differing compatibility of Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova with the foreign and security policy of the European Union? In terms of methodology and research design, the study employs both qualitative and quantitative research methods, utilizing a triangulation approach. Qualitative methods will be employed to analyze secondary sources and documents, including scientific literature, sources, scientific articles, and applied empirical studies relevant to the topic. The analysis of documents will encompass the examination of analytical reports from the European Commission regarding the member countries of the associated trio. These reports assess various areas such as justice, human rights, freedom and security, external security and defense, counter-terrorism and migration, corruption, financial issues, healthcare, and competition policy. Accordingly, the compatibility and performance indicators of the three states with respect to the European Union's foreign and security policy will be analyzed based on the aforementioned areas and the analytical reports provided by the European Commission. In addition to analyzing analytical documents, we will also scrutinize statements made by European parliamentarians, senior officials of the European Union, and ambassadors regarding the compatibility of the member states of the associated trio with the foreign policy of the European Union. Furthermore, qualitative research methods will be employed for conducting in-depth interviews. Five experts specializing in foreign policy, EU policy, and international relations will be selected based on their professional experience. They will be purposefully selected rather than chosen randomly, ensuring a deliberate and evaluative approach to participant selection. For the quantitative research method, we will employ content analysis. Specifically, we will utilize quantitative data to analyze how many declarations related to the associated trio of member states have been adopted by the European Council in the area of foreign and security policy, as well as the content of these declarations. The study period is 2022, during which Georgia, Ukraine, and the Republic of Moldova applied for EU membership following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Subsequently, all three countries were granted EU candidate status.