Birth-rate trends in present-day Georgia

Abstract

The birth rate in Georgia has been declining for a long time recently, and according to the latest information published by Geostat, in 2022, the number of annual births dropped to an absolute minimum of 42,311 live births or 11.4‰ (cf. 57,311 live births and 11.9‰ in 1994). Naturally, such a decline in the birth rate hhurtpopulation growth in general. If the mentioned birth rate of 11.4‰ is maintained for a long time (about 30 years), the existing population will decrease by 28.7%. It will further complicate the problem of population growth and its maintenance. Against this background, the demographic study of birth rate trends, identification of the reasons for its decline and the search for ways to eliminate them is becoming increasingly important. According to the most accurate birth rate indicator - the total fertility rate (the average number of children born to one woman during her lifetime) (1.82 in 2022), simple reproduction of the population (i.e., equality of generations of parents and children), if the current fertility rate is maintained, will be only 85.8%, i.e., other things equal, the the population would decrease by 14.2% just because of this decrease in the birth rate intensity. Among the reasons for the birth rate decline, demographic factors, such as the sex and age structure of the population, are most important. In 1994, there were one million two hundred and thirty-four thousand one hundred (1234.1 thousand) women of childbearing (15-49 years). By January 1, 2023, there were only eight hundred and twenty-six thousand one hundred (826.1) women of childbearing. This means that during the period analyzed (1994-2023), the number of women of fertile age decreased by 33.1%, i.e., by one-third, which would naturally significantly reduce the birth rate of women of reproductive age. In addition, it is noteworthy that the decrease in fertility was affected by an increase in the secondary sex ratio (i.e., the quantitative ratio of boys to girls at birth, which is a constant value and implies the birth of 105-107 boys per 100 live births of girls in a statistically reliable population): (in 1994, the sex ratio was 109.6, and it was 109.4 in 2023), there were, on average, 109 male live births for every 100 female live births; what, although it contributed to an increase in the proportion of sons in the population, at the   same time made the reproduction of women of reproductive age increasingly problematic. Georgia, as a European state, is characterized by late marriages, few children, and late chilchildbearingr example, the average age of men at marriage was 27.7 years in 1994 and 43.4 years in 2023, and 23.3 and 31.9 years for women, respectively. WhatNaturally, thisyhurtn fertility dynamics. The number of live births by maternal age was 12,597 for women under 20 in 1994 and 21,155 for women 20-24 years old, while in 2023, the similar values were 1,978 and 7,915 respectively. For 40-44 years older women, the corresponding values were 2612 and 624 in 1994 and 5970 and 1186 in 2023. The above data confirm that the number of children born to women at a young age (20; 20-24 years old) was steadily decreasing, while the number of births at a late reproductive age (35-39, 40-44 years old) was steadily increasing, proving that the scale of low birth rates was increasing and all this hhurtthe change in the fertility rate. The magnitude of the negative balance of emigration and migration in general also influences the decline in fertility. Between 1994 and 2022, even though the size of the negative balance decreased almost continuously (except in 2020 and 2022), the state of outmigration (negative balance) still hhurtthe change in fertility over the entire analyzed period. During the same period, unmarried working-age men tended to predominate among immigrants, complicating the intensity of marriage in the country and fertility rates as a result. Thus, fertility in Georgia is mainly characterized by a downward trend. To overcome which it is necessary to implement several demographic policy measures among which, in our opinion, should be such a measure as the collection and calculation of ethno- demographic data of fertility (as well as mortality and migration) to be able to observe the changing ethnic-demographic balance in the country.