Georgia's Foreign Policy Orientation: The Population's View from an Ethnic Perspective

Abstract

The national interests, which have been formed over centuries and should correspond to the population's aspirations, determine a state's foreign policy orientation. However, the population's perspectives on political issues are always unique. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct specific sociological studies to determine the extent to which the opinions of different population groups coincide or differ on critical foreign policy issues.Generally, the political views of the population vary significantly based on factors such as age, level of education, place of residence (city, village), region, income, marital status, and other factors. In multi-ethnic countries, it is imperative to approach this issue from an ethnic standpoint because significant differences in this regard can result in acute problems and become a cause for conflict, mainly when ethnic minorities are settled closely in regions adjacent to their historical homeland.Given the above, we deemed it necessary to investigate the views of Georgia's population regarding the country's main foreign policy issues from an ethnic perspective. The study was carried out among the Georgian population of Tbilisi and Mtskheta-Mtianeti, the Azerbaijani population of Kvemo Kartli, and the Armenian population of Javakheti. One thousand two hundred respondents were interviewed, including 58% Georgians, 25% Azerbaijanis, and 16% Armenians.The socio-demographic profile of the respondents was as follows: 52% women and 48% men, with 18.4% between the ages of 18-24, 19.7% between 25-34, 21.3% between 35-44, 15.8% between 45-54, 13.6% between 55-64, and 11% over the age of 65. 24% of the respondents resided in rural areas, while 76% were urban residents (over 2/3 of them were from Tbilisi). Additionally, 61% had complete or incomplete higher education, while 39% had complete or incomplete secondary or secondary-special professional education. In terms of region, religion, and native language, these factors almost entirely corresponded with the ethnic structure of the respondents.The source of information plays a crucial role in shaping the foreign policy orientation of the population. The study revealed that 39% of respondents received information from Georgia's central TV channels, 17% from local TV channels within Georgia, 10% from Russian TV channels, 8% from Armenian TV channels, 10% from Turkish TV channels, and 8.5% from Azerbaijani TV channels. Additionally, 2.3% obtained information from other foreign sources, 1.8% from social networks, 1.5% still needed to receive information, and 2% declined to respond.Taking into account the language skills of the interviewees, it can be inferred that Georgian respondents obtain information from central and local Georgian-language channels in Georgia (with a few receiving information from Russian channels as well), Armenians from Armenian and Russian TV channels, and Azerbaijanis from Turkish, Azerbaijani, and partially Russian TV channels. This factor significantly impacts the results of the study.Regarding Georgia's foreign policy orientation, 69.5% of Georgians responded that the country should have close ties with the West, while 41% of Azerbaijanis held the same view. Only 20.5% of Armenians favored such an orientation. In contrast, the responses regarding a close connection with Russia painted a completely different picture. Merely 1% of Georgians supported this orientation, whereas 20% of Azerbaijanis and 24.5% of Armenians favored it. There is less disparity among neutrality supporters, with 20% of Georgians, 22% of Azerbaijanis, and 29% of Armenians favoring this stance. Additionally, 9.5% of Georgians, 17% of Azerbaijanis, and 25% of Armenians believe Georgia should not have a strongly expressed foreign policy orientation.The situation is similar regarding the question of which country is considered to be the most reliable partner of Georgia. While over 90% of Georgians consider the USA and EU countries reliable partners, only 15% of Azerbaijanis share the same view, and 42% of Armenians hold this opinion. Conversely, 51% of Azerbaijanis believe that Azerbaijan is the most reliable partner, and 15% of Turkey is seen as the most reliable partner. Meanwhile, 40% of Armenians consider Armenia the most reliable partner, with 15% choosing Russia as the most reliable partner.The survey shows a similar pattern in the answers to such questions as the role of Georgia in the international system, relations with NATO and the European Union and their membership, the perception of the USA, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia, and the relations with them.There are stark differences in the assessment of Russia and its relations with it. For instance, 95% of Georgians perceive Russia as an enemy, the main threat, or an unfriendly country, whereas among Azerbaijanis, this figure is 73%, and among Armenians, it is only 33%. While only 0.4% of Georgians perceive Russia as a friendly country, 7.8% of Azerbaijanis and 27.3% of Armenians hold such a view towards Russia. Only 7% of Georgians believe Georgia should establish diplomatic relations with Russia without any preconditions and maintain friendly ties. This figure is 24% among Azerbaijanis and 62% among Armenians.Suppose we summarize the results of the conducted research. In that case, the Azerbaijani population of Kvemo Kartli and the Armenian population of Javakheti are less integrated with the Georgian population. Many of them need to speak the Georgian language and access Georgian sources of information. Therefore, their political vision is often shaped by sources of information in Russian, Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Turkish. It can lead to views that contradict the national interests of Georgia, as their foreign political orientation may be influenced by the interests of their historical homeland (Azerbaijan or Armenia) rather than Georgia's interests.One of the crucial tasks that the Georgian government and its authorities should undertake is to ensure the extensive integration of ethnic minorities with the majority and promote the attainment of a high level of proficiency in the Georgian language in Kvemo Kartli and Javakheti. It is a vital prerequisite for ethnic minorities to identify themselves as a part of the Georgian nation (in the political sense of the nation rather than the ethnic one) and to prioritize Georgia's national interests. Achieving this goal is imperative for Georgia to become a genuinely unified nation-state.